NEPP – North European Energy Perspectives Project

As a part of NEPP (North European Enegy Perspectives Project), Swedish research group Energiforsk wanted support for modelling of how the Swedish electricity system can be developed towards 2035 in a European context. The purpose was to create a foundation for analyses for the “2035 project”, with focus on, how the energy supply van meet rising electricity demands, especially considering large industry project and the green transition.

The energy system modelling was carried out by Ea, as one of four modelling groups, which also numbered Chalmers, Profu, and Quantified Carbon. The groups investigated the development of the Swedish electricity supply towards 2035 in two scenarios for electricity usage. The modelling took the development after 2035 into account as well, with and without new nuclear power. The groups worked from the same scenario description and a harmonized dataset, but with certain differences in the prerequisites for the calculations.

Results show that land-based wind power will make up the largest part of new electricity production to keep costs down. The electricity prices are expected to rise in Sweden in general, this is particularly true for Northern Sweden, where the demand from industry consumers can have a marked rise. Gas turbines have a high investment risk, but can be necessary to ensure security of supply in periods of extreme weather. The role of hydro power as a flexible resource will be strengthened, and the existing nuclear power is expected to keep contributing to the baseload, while new plants are expected to be established only after 2035.

Other central points include the need for quicker processes for permits for land-based wind, large investments in the electricity network, and higher flexibility in the usage, to ensure the electricity production can keep up with the growth of the industry.

You can read the 14 conclusions here (in Swedish), and the full report can be found on the Energiforsk webpage.

The project ran from February 2023 to the end of 2025.