RES and energy storage in the Baltic power market

Ea Energy Analyses has carried out an analysis of RES and energy storage in the Baltic power system for Sunly, a renewable energy company that develops, builds and operates solar, wind and battery storage projects in the Baltics and Poland, while also supplying green electricity directly to customers in the region.

The main task was to explore the consequences of investing in a new pumped hydro storage in the Baltic energy system and how this large storage will affect the integration and business case of wind and solar projects in the systems.

Scenarios investigated with the Balmorel model looked at a development with high PtX demand (with allowed power and hydrogen (H₂) flows to the rest of the European system), as well as a low PtX demand future, where exports of H₂ are not enabled for the Baltic countries.

Key takeaways included that

• The Baltic countries are foreseen to be a net exporter of power and H₂ for the European system due to their competitive VRE conditions.
• A hydrogen demand in Europe will create a considerable value for the accelerated integration of renewables in the system. In 2025, at the absence of H₂ demand and without significant increase in BESS capacity, Baltic solar PV capture prices are below the regional average power prices. Onshore wind projects on the other hand are much closer to the regional averages
• Capture prices of VRE projects increase from 2030 and on at the presence of a H₂ demand.
• The presence of the pumped hydro storage in Estonia can increase solar PV capture prices.

The project ran from May 2024 to March 2025.