Scenarios for the district heating system in the Danish capital area in 2030

Heating | October 2021 - March 2022

In the project Scenario analyses for the future supply of district heating in the capital area (FFH50) analyses of a series of scenarios on the development of the district heating system towards 2050 have been carried out. Vestforbrænding (waste management and energy company) has executed the project in cooperation with CTR, HOFOR and VEKS (transmission, utilities, and district heating companies in the capital area).

Scenarios for 2025, 2030, and 2050 have been set up in the project. Since 2025 is not that far away, the scenarios for 2025 show a system composition that largely resembles the present system. For 2030 and 2050 six scenarios have been set up, reflecting very different roads of development for the district heating system.

Calculation of additional scenario

In accordance with the other parties in FFH50, Vestforbrænding has contacted Ea Energy Analyses, as they wanted a closer analysis of a new scenario for 2030 to follow up on FFH50. The main focus for this scenario was to include a larger share of conversions from natural gas to district heating in the calculations than what was done in the FFH50 baseline scenario, while establishing CCS on all waste management plants in the capital area and expanding the amount of heat pumps.

The project was carried out from October 2021 to March 2022.