South Africa: Scenario report on costs and benefits of renewable energy in the power system

South Africa | March 2011 - September 2011

Ea Energy Analyses has developed a model of the South African power system to determine the value of deploying 3,625 MW of renewable energy generating capacity. Two scenarios were developed, a reference case without renewables and a renewable energy policy scenario with 3,625 MW of RE deployed.

Substantial benefits

The results indicated that the deployment of renewables, and especially wind and solar power, provides substantial benefits for the South African power system in saved fuel costs, increased security of supply and reduced need for investments in new transmission capacity.

The project was part of a training programme for Eskom funded by GiZ (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit). A workshop on Danish experiences in integrating wind power in electricity systems was held in May 2011 as a precursor to the scenario report. The project was carried out in the period from May to September 2011.

Update of scenario report

Ea Energy Analyses has been updating the scenario report on the value of renewables for the South African power system produced for GiZ in 2011. The update includes improved wind data from the Wind Atlas for South Africa project, improved data on transfer capacities in the transmission grid, improved data on electricity demand on a regional basis and knowledge of the geographical positioning of more than 2000 MW of RE projects to be commissioned within the following three years. The year the scenario analysis is carried out for has been moved from 2015 to 2016 to represent the target date for commissioning the 3725 MW under the RE-IPP Procurement Programme.

The report was completed by August 2012.