Development of a regional master plan in Eastern Africa

Balmorel: Power system model | June 2013 - April 2015

Eastern African Power Pool, EAPP, is comprised of 10 member states: Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the DRC. South Sudan and Djibouti have also been included in the analyses. These countries have a combined population of 430 million people, with an average electricity consumption of around 700 kWh per capita (the Danish equivalent is above 6.000 kWh).

Electricity consumption is increasing rapidly due to economic growth and a higher degree of electricity penetration. Consumption is doubled every 10th year, occasioning a demand for large investments in power plants and transmission capacity.

Ea Energy Analyses have assisted with the creation of a master plan, concerning the development of the electricity system. The plan is to invest in hydropower and a new grid connection between Ethiopia and Egypt.

The modelling tool BALMOREL was used for the calculations, and EAPP was trained in the use of this model for updating the plan in the future.

During the project a main scenario and 20 alternative scenarios have been calculated. The alternative scenarios include sensitivity analyses for e.g. electricity consumption, energy prices, transmission delays or delays from hydro plants, and the discount rate. Combined, the analyses offer a detailed insight into the most attractive investments and the sensitivity of the different parameters.

The project is carried out in cooperation with, who contributed with analyses of the development of the electricity markets and operation of the power systems.

Approval of the master plan

The master plan was approved by the leading organs of EAPP, The Steering Committee and the Council of Ministers, at a meeting the 20 – 22th of January 2016 in Ethiopia.

The Steering Committee consists of managers of the power companies in the 10 countries, and the Council of Ministers of government representatives from the 10 same countries.

About the Reports

In the executive summary, the focus is on decisions that can be taken in the short term. Therefore, it discusses the possible development of the electricity system towards 2020 and 2025, with the long-term perspectives (towards 2040) provided in other volumes of the master plan (e.g. Volume I: Main report).