On behalf of Norsk Petroleumsinstitutt, Ea Energy Analyses has carried out an analysis of the possible development of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the Norwegian transport sector until 2035. The project examines the impact of various factors on total energy consumption, including improved efficiency of vehicles and use of alternative fuels such as biofuels and electricity.
Calculations are made in a spreadsheet model that enables simulation of for instance the development in the size of the fleet, energy consumption and emissions of CO2 on the basis of assumptions regarding the future demand for transport, fuels and energy efficiency of new vehicles. Also other assumptions regarding for example admixture of biofuels are included.
The analyses show, that CO2-emissions from the transport sector peaked in 2008, after which the recorded fall may be expected to continue. The fall continues in spite of steady growth in the demand for transport, and in the reference scenario, this is primarily due to the expected development of more fuel-efficient cars. However, energy consumption raises slightly in reference scenario towards 2035.