IEA Wind Task 26 – Cost of Wind Energy

Balmorel: Power system model | December 2012 - December 2015

Representing Denmark, Ea Energy Analyses is a participant of the IEA Wind Task 26 – Cost of Wind Energy – Phase III. It is an international forum for exchange of knowledge and information related to the cost of wind energy.

The primary objective of IEA Wind Task 26 is to provide information on cost of wind energy in order to understand past, present and anticipate future trends using consistent transparent methodologies and understand how wind technology compares to other generation options.

IEA Wind Task 26 – phase III consists of four work packages:

  • Update analysis of land-based wind technology cost drivers and differences among participating countries with current data
  • Estimate cost of offshore wind energy and identify major cost drivers in each participating country
  • Explore methods and application of methods to understand future cost of wind energy and repowering
  • Explore methods and application of methods to understand value of wind energy in an electric system

Among other activities, Ea Energy Analyses is leading the efforts in the value of the Wind Power work package, and based on the Balmorel model, a number of scenario analyses will be carried out in collaboration with the other participants of the IEA Wind Task 26.

IEA Wind Task 26 was initiated in January 2009, with Phase 2 commencing in October 2012, followed by Phase 3 as of October 2015. Phase 3 is expected to be completed by September 2018.

The IEA Wind TCP Report

On 22 November 2017, the IEA Wind TCP report was launched at a full day event at the Technical University of Denmark.

The report, made by Ea Energy Analyses and the working group of IEA Wind TCP Task 26, analyses the development of the European power system until 2030 and explores the effects of different wind turbine designs. The study focuses on the market value of wind and total system costs arising from different combinations of hub height and specific power of wind turbines.

The ongoing transformation of the power system increases the importance of integrating variable renewable energy. Very high wind penetration rates pose challenges to system operation and put pressure on the market value of wind power. Among other measures, a more system-friendly deployment of variable renewable power generation would ease integration issues.

Wind turbines with taller towers and larger rotors achieve higher capacity factors and have higher market value: by 2030, advanced turbines can earn as much as 4.3 €/MWh more (+13%) than business-as-usual technology. Not only new land-based turbines, but also offshore turbines and the existing land-based wind fleet benefits from a shift in new land-based turbine design. Moreover, specific power demonstrated to have a much larger impact on the market value compared to hub height.

High capacity factor turbines contribute to lower system cost due to lower Levelized cost of Energy and reduced fuel costs for medium and peak load operation. However, advanced turbines are more costly in terms of investment cost per MW. Therefore, tradeoffs between cost and value are required to assess optimal turbine choice, which will vary widely across Europe depending on site and local market conditions.

Technology design considerations, in terms of both cost and value, are important when evaluating the value of wind power generation. Failing to take into account the technological development in land-based wind power when analyzing the development of power systems could result in an underestimation of the competitiveness of wind power and its potential contribution to a cost-effective system development.