On behalf of Toyota Motor Europe, Ea Energy Analyses has investigated potential drivetrain technology scenarios that can be expected up to 2050 for personal vehicles within the EU. Paramount to the investigation was the identification of the key drivers and barriers of the most important next generation drivetrain technologies (e.g., electric, natural gas, hydrogen) in the European context. The background for the study was the 2011 White Paper on Transport by the European Commission.
CO2 emissions from transport represent one of the most difficult challenges related to climate change mitigation on the EU level. The ‘Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system’ from March 2011 sets out a transport strategy within a frame of achieving a 60% reduction in transport GHG emissions by 2050.
The bulk of the study entailed the construction of European drivetrain technology scenarios for personal vehicles that can be expected up to 2050. The work involved an analytical comparison of ICEs, EVs, PHEVs natural gas vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with focus on critical parameters (economics, CO2 emissions, energy efficiency, security of supply, environmental impact, EU regional differences, infrastructural needs, policies, etc.). Scenarios were developed for 2020, 2030 and 2050, and fundamental aspects for investigation included the identification and analysis of key transport related drivers and barriers, as well as the identification of expected future transport trends and customer needs.