Transport: Energy consumption and CO2 emission towards 2035

Scenario analysis and roadmaps | December 2013 - March 2014

Ea Energy Analyses conducted an analysis on behalf of the Danish Oil Industry Association, concerning future fuel consumption and CO2 emissions within the transportation sector.

Scenarios towards 2035 for the energy consumption of the Danish transport sector were updated and compared with the basis for the government’s climate plan presented in August 2013. The analysis shows that the CO2 emission will be lower than previously expected. The reduction is primarily due to more energy-efficient vehicles.

Furthermore, the economic consequences of the scenario in 2020 was examined. According to the government’s Climate Plan, by 2020 there will be a shortfall of approx. 4 million tonnes in order to achieve the goal of 40% reduction. If the results from this analysis are taken into account, the deficit will be reduced to approx. 2 million. tonnes of CO2 in 2020. This provides a socio-economic saving of about 1400 million Dkr. in 2020.

The scenario used in the project was an updated edition of an earlier analysis Scenarios for energy consumption in the Danish transport sector.