On behalf of the Danish Energy Agency, Ea Energy Analyses has analysed the development of biomass prices at the place of consumption. As a part of the assignment, Ea developed a simple method by which forecasts can be made for prices at the place of consumption, based on CIF prices.
Calculations for wood pellets, wood chips and straw have been made in relation for use in industry, households and district heating. The method takes into account that wood pellets are imported, that straw is produced in Denmark and that wood chips can be both imported from abroad and produced domestically. Ea investigated the price development in 2012, as well as the period between 2015 and 2050 in intervals of five years. As a part of the assignment, a tailor made excel model was developed that converts CIF prices into relevant prices at the place of consumption.
The price forecasting tool is to be used by The Danish Energy Agency in relation to the socio-economic assumptions, which are updated and published regularly for use in economic analyses.