Electricity scenarios for the Tidstegen model

Balmorel: Power system model | May 2021 - January 2022

IVL Swedish Environmental Institute has developed a model called Tidstegen for analysis of energy consumption in buildings and to calculate the climate effects of changing the consumption.

The purpose of this project was to provide yearly and hourly marginal CO2 emission coefficients of the power sector in Sweden as input for the Tidstegen model.

The energy system is expected to develop over time, but it is uncertain how it will develop. The emission coefficients will help provide insights on how a change in electricity consumption in buildings will affect CO2 emissions.

The uncertainty of the energy system was also accounted for by creating multiple different scenarios of energy system development. The scenarios were designed to cover a relatively large spectrum of different reasonable outcomes. One scenario is a reference development, while two others are climate neutral pathways that differ with respect to the role of Power-to-X. There is also an additional scenario describing a somewhat dimmer future.

Analyses of the marginal CO2 emission from increased electricity consumption was explored using the electricity market model Balmorel in the four scenarios.

The project ran from May 2021 to January 2022.