Model calculations for the electricity price outlook of Green Power Denmark

Balmorel: Power system model | January 2023 - July 2023

Green Power Denmark has published “Elpris Outlook 2023” (electricity price outlook), which was also issued in 2018, 2019, and 2021. The electricity outlook is a recurrent publication from Green Power Denmark, showing various possible future scenarios for the development of electricity prices in the wholesale market in Denmark and Northwest Europe. The report takes stock of the development in the electricity market in recent years and gives a prediction of the future, based on the energy system model Balmorel.

An important purpose of the electricity price outlook is to illustrate the dynamics that affects the electricity price formation, and how large an effect various factors have on the price. The aim is not to give one main prediction on the development of the electricity price, but to show scenarios that create a margin for the price development.

Ea Energy Analyses has aided Green Power Denmark by carrying out the model calculations that are a part of the publication. Ea has done scenario analyses with Balmorel to show the direction the electricity price can take in the coming years and has given inputs and background material for the outlook.

In previous scenario analyses Green Power Denmark has calculated the development based on continued use of fossil fuels. With the latest development of high prices on fossil fuels and ambitious climate targets, this has been assessed to be an unlikely scenario in the long run. Instead, the focus this time was on scenarios that shed light on different development paths towards a future in 2050 with low emissions of greenhouse gases from the energy system.

The project ran from January to July 2023.