Power price implications of the closure of Ringhals 1 & 2​

Prices and price forecasts | December 2021 - February 2022

In Sweden, the high power prices stirred a contrafactual discussion focusing on the hypothetical impact on the electricity prices if all the reactors at Ringhals nuclear power plant were still running. Ringhals consists of four reactors. Two of the reactors, R1 and R2, were permanently shot down in 2019 and 2020, whereas R3 and R4 are still operational. 

An analysis focusing on the autumn of 2021 was carried out by Ea Energy Analyses and Energiforsk, where a simulation of the electricity system at that time was made, and then either 1,8 GW nuclear power or 3,5 GW offshore wind power was added, to see the effect this would have had on the electricity prices.

The result was that the electricity prices could have been 30-50% lower during that time, if additional electricity production had been in operation. One of the reasons for that is that currently, Sweden has limits in the transmission capacity to other countries, and therefore incoming power largely stays in Sweden, having a great impact on the prices there.

The analysis builds on work done in the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios project, which focused on pathways for the Nordic energy sector to achieve carbon neutrality.

The project was carried out from December 2021 to February 2022, and the report can be downloaded on Energiforsk’s website.