In an analysis for Dansk Energi (lobby organisation for the Danish energy companies) and Dansk Fjernvarme (the Danish District Heating Association), Ea Energy Analyses has investigated the potential for new technologies in the electricity and district heating sectors.
In the report, Ea concludes that the most important technology with potential to cover the district heating usage, if biomass is phased out, is electric heat pumps.
The analysis has three main parts
In the reference scenario, where no demands for phasing out biomass are set, the use of biomass is expected to fall by 70% in 2040. Scenarios with biomass fully phased out by 2025 and 2030 are, respectively, seen as unrealistic and very uncertain to carry out.
The analysis is based on prerequisites on the cost of heat pumps from the technology catalogue. If these turn out to be not as cheap and effective as expected, the conclusion is that there will still primarily be an expansion with heat pumps, but to some degree with biomass technologies as well.
An Advisory Board consisting of Danmarks Naturfredningsforening, CONCITO, Aalborg Universitet, Dansk Fjernvarme, and Dansk Energi has been set up and has met regularly during the development of the analysis, to discuss the content of the analysis and provide input for further work.
See the full analysis in the report, which can be downloaded here (in Danish).