Prices and price forecasts

Forecasting future power prices is a highly complex task as prices depend on drivers such as future fuel prices, energy policies and grid developments, which are all embedded in uncertainty. Nonetheless, forecasts are crucial for the strategic decision-making of market players in the energy industry.

At Ea Energy Analyses, we excel at forecasting future power prices and technology specific capture prices in European markets. We combine energy market expertise, a unique power system model and scenario analyses to deliver value beyond isolated onetime forecasts.

Read more about our expertise and methods in our Power Price Forecasting brochure

Completed projects

The list of projects below illustrates the types of projects we have been working on.


Model calculations for the electricity price outlook of Green Power Denmark

Green Power Denmark has published “Elpris Outlook 2023” (electricity price outlook), which was also issued in 2018, 2019, and 2021. The electricity outlook is a recurrent publication from..

31 July 2023


Power price implications of the closure of Ringhals 1 & 2​

In Sweden, the high power prices stirred a contrafactual discussion focusing on the hypothetical impact on the electricity prices if all the reactors at Ringhals nuclear power plant..

28 February 2022

Swedish electricity prices in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

The crisis in Ukraine has had unprecedented effects on European energy markets. At the time of their invasion of Ukraine, Russia covered approximately 40% of the European gas..

14 December 2022


Analysis of a new aFRR market in East Denmark

To ensure security of supply in the electricity system, Energinet buys various types of reserves for the market areas DK1 and DK2, which covers West and East Denmark,..

31 December 2021

Projection of electricity market prices

Ea Energy Analyses has made a projection of electricity market prices towards 2050 for the DK1 bidding zone (Western Denmark) for AffaldVarmeAarhus (Danish waste, recycling, and heating company)...

19 March 2021

Analysis of system costs

Ea Energy Analyses has assisted Swedish research institute Energiforsk on an analysis of the system costs of various energy technologies. The analysis has given input to an update..

28 February 2021

Socioeconomic heat prices for the Danish capital area

There is a continuous conversion of individual natural gas customers to district heating in the Danish capital area. Project proposals addressing the socioeconomic consequences must be prepared for..

30 April 2021


Analysis of the mFRR market in East Denmark

To ensure security of supply in the electricity system, Energinet buys various types of reserves for the market areas DK1 and DK2 (areas covering West and East Denmark,..

31 December 2020


Analysis of shore power

In this project, Ea Energy Analyses carried out an analysis of shore power in Nuuk harbour for the Greenlandic utility company Nukissiorfiit. The analysis focused on the options..

30 June 2019

Waste overview and analysis for the Greater Copenhagen area

In this project, Ea Energy Analyses carried out an analysis of the waste area on behalf of HOFOR (the utility company for the capital). In the district heating..

15 October 2019

Levelized cost of energy calculator - China

In 2015, Ea Energy Analyses developed a tool for estimating levelized cost of energy (LCoE) in collaboration with the Danish Energy Agency. The tool calculates the levelized cost..

31 May 2019


Quality assurance of LCoE calculator

The LCoE Calculator was originally developed in a collaboration between the Danish Energy Agency and Ea Energy Analyses, as an online tool for calculating production costs of electricity..

31 May 2018


Mapping the Danish wood pellet market in 2016

Ea Energy Analyses has carried out a wood pellet survey of the total supply of wood pellets to the Danish market in 2016, on behalf of the Danish..

31 December 2017

Forward prices for fossil fuels and biomass

Based on a methodology developed by Ea Energy Analyses, the Danish Energy Agency utilises energy commodity forwards and future prices in combination with long-term price forecasts to arrive..

30 November 2017


Updated biomass prices

Ea Energy Analyses has twice previously provided the Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen) with long-term price forecasts for biomass (wood pellets, wood chips and straw), with the most recent..

30 November 2016

Electricity price forecast for Skellefteå Kraft

Using the electricity market model Balmorel, Ea Energy Analyses assisted Skellefteå Kraft (Swedish power company) with a long-term forecast of spot market prices and capture prices for selected..

30 November 2016

Analysis of future electricity prices

A feature of the electricity market is the trade with ongoing contracts, which can be used to insure a set electricity price in the future. As an example,..

31 January 2016


Early shutdown of the nuclear power plant Ringhals

Vattenfall decided to close Ringhals unit 1 and 2 by 2025, earlier than previously planned. Instead, the shutdown of 1.5GW capacity occured in 2019 and 2020. Ea Energy..

31 May 2015

Economic and climate effects of increased integration of the Nordic and German electricity systems

Ea Energy Analyses, in collaboration with DTU Management Engineering Systems Analysis division, participated in the joint project of Agora Energiewende and Global Utmaning concerning the integration of Nordic..

30 June 2015


Updating assumptions to fuel price projections

The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) assess the future fuel prices periodically for the use of projections and economic analyses, and a part of that work is updating the..

31 July 2014

Biomass prices at places of consumption

On behalf of the Danish Energy Agency, Ea Energy Analyses has analysed the development of biomass prices at the place of consumption. As a part of the assignment,..

30 September 2014

Integration of wind power in the energy system

Today, wind power represents more than 30% of the domestic electricity supply in Denmark. Both national and international plans indicate that the share of wind power will increase..

30 November 2014

Shale gas in Europe

On behalf of a private sector client, Ea Energy Analyses undertook an investigation of the potential technical, economic, regulatory, political and environmental challenges associated with shale gas extraction..

30 November 2014

Electricity trade between Estonia/Latvia and Russia

In this analysis, the power market model Balmorel was used to quantify the consequences of allowing electricity trade between Estonia/Latvia and Russia. The data for Russia was updated..

30 April 2014


Analysis and projections of biomass fuel prices

In association with the Technical University of Denmark, Ea Energy Analyses carried out a study for the Danish Energy Agency (DEA), which is part of the DEA’s periodic..

31 July 2013

Green value of biogas

Ea Energy Analyses has carried out an investigation of future willingness-to-pay (WTP) for biomethane certificates in Denmark. The investigation is based on a general analysis of voluntary willingness..

31 August 2013

The future website for comparison of electricity prices

A good website for electricity price comparison can be one of several instruments to encourage a more efficient retail market. It will give the interested consumer the possibility..

31 March 2013


Update of socio-economic fuel prices

The Danish Energy Agency periodically publishes guidelines and assumptions for socio-economic analyses within the energy field. For the edition of assumptions for socio-economic analyses within the energy field..

31 March 2011

The intelligent energy system - possibilities and challenges

On behalf of the Danish Agriculture and Food Council, Ea Energy Analyses has made a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, options and threats) of the intelligent energy system based..

31 March 2011

Biomass for heat and power production - an analysis of market structures

On behalf of Copenhagen Energy and District heating Fyn, Ea Energy Analyses undertook  an analysis of the market structures for the trading of biomass. The analysis contained an..

1 January 2011


Development of electricity prices

Ea Energy Analyses has made a new study of the development of the electricity prices since 1995 for the Danish Energy Agency. The study describes the development of..

30 June 2010


Demand response in households

The project demonstrated how electrically heated households can respond to fluctuations in electricity prices. More than 500 households participated in the demonstration project. Only automatic devices were effectiveThe..

1 October 2009