Scenario analysis and roadmaps

Scenario analyses of the future energy systems provide a useful tool for identifying policy measures and actions that are required to transform our energy systems in a sustainable direction. Scenario analyses can give an overview of the different possible actions to reach a set goal while also analysing the effect of policy instruments. Instead of only focusing on a single technology or instrument, a scenario gives an insight into the correlation between different instruments and offers a holistic approach to understanding the possible development to reach a set goal.

Ea Energy Analyses has extensive experience in developing scenario analyses on many different levels, from the EU level to scenarios for a single municipality. We have for instance prepared analyses for the Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy, the European Parliament, the Baltic Development Forum and the Nordic Council of Ministers.

On going

The list of projects below illustrates the types of projects we are working on.

Modelling and capacity development in Mexico

Ea has supported the Mexican National Institute on Ecology and Climate Change (INECC) with modelling activities and capacity building, focusing on the energy system model Balmorel. After signing..

30 June 2024

Scenario tool

In the DK2020 project municipalities pledge to develop and implement climate action plans that meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. Scenarios for reducing greenhouse gases are an..

29 February 2024

Energy masterplan for the West Nusa Tenggara province in Indonesia

The West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) province, with main islands Lombok and Sumbawa, has pledged a course of having 60% renewable energy in Lombok’s electricity system by 2030, 100%..

31 December 2023

Coordinated modelling and planning of net-zero carbon infrastructure

China aims to peak their carbon emissions by 2030, and to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. To achieve this, a transformation of energy infrastructure, planning and regulation is..

31 October 2023

Completed projects

The list of projects below illustrates the types of projects we have been working on.


Scenarios for district heating in the capital area

In 2012, Copenhagen Municipality published the climate plan KBH 2025, which shows the direction for reductions of carbon emissions in Copenhagen, with a goal of having the city..

30 November 2023

Model calculations for the electricity price outlook of Green Power Denmark

Green Power Denmark has published “Elpris Outlook 2023” (electricity price outlook), which was also issued in 2018, 2019, and 2021. The electricity outlook is a recurrent publication from..

31 July 2023

Climate plan for Holbæk Municipality

Along with 45 other municipalities, Holbæk Municipality has taken part in the second phase of the DK2020 project. With DK2020 the municipalities commit to develop and implement climate..

31 January 2023


Biogas analysis for Greenpeace

Greenpeace Nordic has a goal of getting a marked reduction in the number of cattle and pigs in the agricultural industry. Therefore, they asked Ea Energy Analyses to..

1 July 2022

The future energy production at Aarhus ReWater

Historically, the wastewater treatment in Aarhus has taken place on a number of smaller plants, but to optimise the wastewater structure in the Aarhus area, it has been..

29 September 2022

Analyses for the post 2025 climate plan for Copenhagen Municipality

In 2012, Copenhagen Municipality published the climate plan “KBH 2025”, showing the path to reduction of carbon emissions in Copenhagen with the target that the city should be..

12 August 2022

Scenarios for the district heating system in the Danish capital area in 2030

In the project Scenario analyses for the future supply of district heating in the capital area (FFH50) analyses of a series of scenarios on the development of the..

31 March 2022

Electricity scenarios for the Tidstegen model

IVL Swedish Environmental Institute has developed a model called Tidstegen for analysis of energy consumption in buildings and to calculate the climate effects of changing the consumption. The..

31 January 2022

Pit thermal energy storage in Roskilde

In this project Ea Energy Analyses participated in a pre-feasibility study on whether investing in a pit thermal energy storage (PTES) in Roskilde would be financially attractive. The..

1 March 2022


Hybrid-diesel battery systems in Maniitsoq and Uummannaq

For the Greenlandic supply company Nukissiorfiit, Ea Energy Analyses has investigated whether there is an economic advantage in integrating large batteries in Maniitsoq and Uummannaq to replace parts..

31 May 2021

Scenario analyses for the future supply of district heating in the capital area

As a part of the project “The future supply of district heating in the capital area 2050” (FFH50), Ea Energy Analyses has done calculations on scenarios for the..

1 September 2021

Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

The Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios project identified technological solutions and developed energy scenarios on how the Nordic energy sector can achieve carbon neutrality and how this implicates various..

15 August 2021


Indonesia renewable energy pipeline

Along with some of the world’s greatest geothermal and hydropower potential, Indonesia possesses abundant resources of solar, wind and bioenergy. However, in the last five years the renewable..

15 December 2020

Transition analysis for energy planning network

In May 2018 the network cooperation “Energi på Tværs” developed a joint strategic energy plan for the municipalities in the Capital Region, along with four surrounding municipalities (EPT33)...

1 November 2020

The value of gas storage

The green transition creates new conditions for the economy of and demand for gas storage. On one hand, a shift away from the use of gas is happening,..

1 September 2020

Climate plan for Roskilde

With the Strategic Climate and Energy Plan from 2019, Roskilde Municipality has set a number of climate and energy goals, which in several respects are more ambitious than..

15 August 2020

Energy scenarios for Region Syddanmark

In this project, Ea Energy Analyses aided Region Syddanmark (administrative region covering southern Jutland and Fyn) in preparing a climate strategy, which explored possible actions the region and..

31 December 2020

Energy scenarios for Hainan Clean Energy Island

The Hainan Province in the South China Sea has a growing energy demand, and currently relies mainly on non-renewable energy sources. The Chinese government has chosen the region..

31 October 2020

Roadmap: Phasing out natural gas for indoor heating

In the spring of 2019, Energifonden started the project “Phasing out natural gas for indoor heating”. The Danish Parliament jointly agreed on an energy agreement in June 2018,..

24 April 2020

Roadmap for electrification in Denmark

Electrification is increasingly seen as a crucial prerequisite for achieving the Danish climate ambitions of at least 55% renewable energy in 2030 and independence of fossil fuels in..

29 February 2020



The GRIDSOL project aims to provide secure, clean and efficient electricity by combining primary renewable energy sources and technologies under an advanced control system. GRIDSOL will allow increasing..

30 November 2019

Regional Energy Modelling in four Indonesian Provinces

Ea Energy Analyses has developed three Energy Outlook reports covering the Indonesian provinces of North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, South Kalimantan and Riau. Each province is found to have a large potential..

31 December 2019

Indonesia province screening

The Danish government cooperates with Indonesia on energy planning, renewables integration and energy efficiency, in order to assist Indonesia in moving towards a more sustainable future energy system...

31 January 2019

Plan for district heating in Aarhus (KlimaVarmePlan 2020)

Aarhus Municipality actively works to reduce the carbon footprint of the city. The target is to become carbon neutral already by 2030, and towards 2050 the energy system..

30 June 2019

Regional energy modelling in Lombok

As part of the engagement between Denmark and Indonesia under the Strategic Sector Cooperation, the Danish Energy Agency and the National Energy Council chose Lombok as a pilot..

31 January 2019

Energy scenarios for Vietnam

The use of electricity is increasing rapidly in Vietnam – and the supply is today primarily based on coal. In a number of projects, energy scenarios for Vietnam..

30 September 2019

Offshore wind in the Baltic Sea

In a recent report for the European Commission, Ea Energy Analyses investigated the potential for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea together with COWI and Thema Consulting group..

30 June 2019

The role of natural gas towards 2050

In this project Ea Energy Analyses undertook an analysis of the role that natural gas historically has played in the Danish and European energy systems on behalf of..

30 June 2019

Measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark towards 2030

Ea Energy Analyses has analysed a number of measures to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark by 2030 as a part of the technical background material for..

30 September 2019


How can the Faroe Islands power system become 100% supplied by renewables?

On behalf of the Faroese power company SEV, the project undertook a number of analyses of the Faroese electricity system. The project outlined economic paths for reaching a..

1 January 2018

Consolidation of Balmorel modelling in Indonesia

Indonesia and Denmark are cooperating through an Environmental Support Programme (ESP), where the third phase ran from 2013 to 2017. The overarching objective of ESP3 is to support..

31 January 2018

Baltic Energy Technology Perspectives

Baltic Energy Technology Perspectives (BENTE) is a research collaboration between the leading research institutions from the Baltic countries, the Nordic research team and the Nordic Energy Research. The..

31 May 2018

Demonstration of the dynamic energy system

The vision of ProjectZero is to make the Sønderborg area CO2 neutral in 2029 at the latest, with a milestone of reducing the emissions of CO2 by 75% in 2025...

30 November 2018

Gas scenarios 2018

The natural gas usage in Denmark has been declining in the past 15 years, and it is considered likely that the decline will continue. In this project, Ea..

30 September 2018

Energy plan for Nuuk

Today, Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, is supplied with electricity from the hydropower plant in Buksefjorden, which is located 56 km southeast of the city. The hydropower plant..

31 August 2018


Balmorel model implementation in Vietnam

Ea Energy Analyses was involved in an initiative on planning of renewable energy integration in the Vietnamese electricity sector within a cooperation framework between Vietnam and the Danish..

30 April 2017


Renewable energy scenarios in Mexico

Mexico has ambitious goals in terms of expansion of clean energy within the electricity sector and reducing national CO2 emissions. The objective of this project was to strengthen the..

31 August 2016


Scenarios for Green Transport

Denmark has a long-term goal to be independent of fossil fuels by 2050. This has consequences for the transport sector, which is primarily based on oil. At the..

30 November 2015

Scenario analyses and energy balance for Høje-Taastrup

In January 2014, the municipality of Høje-Taastrup initiated the project “Høje-Taastrup Going Green” with financial support from the Danish Energy Agency for strategic energy planning. The aim of..

31 December 2015


Transport: Energy consumption and CO2 emission towards 2035

Ea Energy Analyses conducted an analysis on behalf of the Danish Oil Industry Association, concerning future fuel consumption and CO2 emissions within the transportation sector. Scenarios towards 2035 for..

31 March 2014


Guide to analysis of system changes and scenario analyses

Ea Energy Analyses assisted the Danish Energy Agency in preparing the “Guide to analysis of system changes and scenario analyses”. The guide is part of the Danish Energy..

30 September 2013